Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
