Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
